War in Israel what comes next?

 The war in Israel started early on October 7th when the Gaza-based Hamas launched a devastating attack on Israel using rockets, paragliders, and explosives to break through the Israeli security perimeter barrier that separates southern Israel from Gaza. Hamas proceeded to kill, rape, torture, and burn Israeli civilians alive. This devastating attack on Israel left over 1,400 civilians killed by Hamas and the smaller Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). Both these groups receive substantial aid from the Iranian Government including financial and military weaponry.

Hours after the attacks were launched against Israel we began seeing the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responding to the attack. Israeli Naval ships in the Mediterranean were the first to respond to the attack by Hamas & the PIJ by targeting Hamas & PIJ militants who crossed into Israeli territory. Within the first hour, we began seeing the Israeli Air Force launching airstrikes targeting Hamas forces inside of southern Israel and within Gaza. Within hours the political leadership of Israel began responding with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu saying Hamas had declared war on Israel by invading the Jewish State.

Some of the top allies of Israel immediately condemned the atrocities committed by Hamas including President Biden saying on October 16th that Hamas must be eliminated but did say the United States supports a two-state solution. Many foreign leaders including the British Prime Minister, the President of France, and President Biden of the United States made official visits to Israel to show support to the people of Israel. 

One very noticeable country with influence in Israel that didn't strongly condemn Hamas was the Russian Federation. On October 7th the official Twitter (X) account of the Russian Foreign Ministry in Israel called for a Ceasefire and chose not to condemn the attacks by Hamas on Israel. On October 10th the Russian Foreign Ministry released this statement "We express deepest condolences to the families and friends of all those killed and wish a speedy recovery to the injured." As you can see the Russians avoided directly condemning the attacks by Hamas which I found unusual but this move by the Kremlin is in line with the importance Russia has put on its relationship with the Iranians which have been supplying Russia with artillery, artillery ammunition, other various types of ammunition, missiles, drones and other military assistance. Russia has given Israel the cold shoulder due to the Kremlin seeing Iran as a very important ally in its war against Ukraine.

Israel is over a week into its ground operation into the Gaza Strip where the IDF has effectively cut the Strip in half with the southern portion of Gaza labeled a safe zone for Gaza civilians. Israel a few weeks back ordered Palestinian civilians in Northern Gaza to evacuate south. This was one of the major indications that the IDF was planning a major ground operation in Gaza. So far Israel has been able to cut off northern Gaza from Southern Gaza by securing territory from Al Zahra to Juhor ad Dik. The strategic goal of the IDF remains the capture of territory along the HaBessor Stream from the Israeli border with Gaza to the Mediterranean Sea. This would be used to stop Hamas forces in southern Gaza from targeting IDF forces in the Northern part of Gaza. 

I expect we will see combat operations last for quite some time in Gaza however I do not believe we are looking at many months to possibly a year as my assessment is that time is not on the side of Israel or Hamas. International pressure will continue to rise with the goal of pushing for a humanitarian pause in fighting in Gaza.  Secretary of State Blinken tried asking the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu about a pause and Israel fully declined knowing that if they agreed to a pause there would likely be international pressure for a ceasefire which Jerusalem isn't interested in as Israeli leadership is keen on making sure Hamas is permanently defeated.  For Hamas, the more time goes on it is a two-edged sword for Hamas. For the beneficial part for Hamas, the more time passes the more international pressure will mount on Israel for a ceasefire. On the not good part for Hamas, the more time passes the more the IDF will be able to degrade the capabilities of Hamas. Hamas will have to maintain its ability to sustain its tunnel systems including air ventilation systems which will be challenging with the IDF attacking Hamas from the Air, Sea, and Land. 

Hezbollah the militant group based in Lebanon is an Iranian-backed group that receives significant funding from Iran. In 2018 the US State Department under the Trump Administration believed Iran was giving Hezbollah $700m each year. Some estimates suggest Iran is giving them nearly $1B a year. Hezbollah is estimated to have over 150,000 rockets of various types. It's believed they have many rockets that are more accurate than anything Hamas or the PIJ operates. While Hezbollah maintains large military influence in Lebanon it must face the reality that Lebanon's economy is in a very bad position right now for example inflation in Lebanon is currently at 208.50% which is crazy bad for Lebanon's civilian population. In 2018 the GDP of Lebanon stood at $54.9B today the GDP of Lebanon stands at $23.3B. That is very bad economic news for a country like Lebanon. Lebanon's economy and civilian population can't afford a devastating war with Israel. Hezbollah would inflict damage on Israel but the retaliation by Israel's military would severely cripple Lebanon for many years to come. It could very well lead to the collapse of Lebanon. Hezbollah and Iran in turn would lose its bargaining chips against Israel and the United States. Despite all the rhetoric I am quite iffy that we will see Hezbollah militarily intervene against the Jewish State.

Iran is the country that many including myself believe took part in helping Hamas and the PIJ prepare and train for a major terrorist attack on Israel. T